Once upon a time a very intelligent person named Frank Drake came up with an equation for estimating the number of intelligent alien civilizations in the galaxy who might one day get in touch with us. To wit:

N = N* x fp x ne x fl x fi x fc x fL

Deceptively simple, isn't it? Just multiplying things. The mathematics of it are simple. The magic of it depends on the values one plugs into it.

One of these numbers, at least, has a concrete value, or as near so as makes no difference. The first value, N*, is the number of stars in the galaxy. This is estimated at 100 Billion. From there you go on, plugging one's own values (in percentages) to the other variables: how many stars have planets, how many planets could sustain life, how many actually did have life evolve, how many where life became intelligent and developed the technologies to contact us, etc. If one is conservatively minded and plugs in only a very mizerly 30% for each, with one planet per system capable of sustaining life and those civilizations transmitting for only a thousand years, you still come up with 81 civilizations through the galaxy. If one is more generous -- or more hopeful -- the numbers jump at a gratifying rate. At 50% for those variables of percentages, 1.5 planets average per system, and 10,000 years transmitting, the number of civilizations goes up to 9,375.

It's a calculation of hope.

And that hope becomes more of a reality for us with every passing day. The longer we transmit, the longer we can estimate others have been transmitting. The longer we survive, the longer we can expect other civilizations to survive ... and the greater the chance we will encounter them. Every passing day that we avoid destroying ourselves is another day closer to when we will know for certain that we are not alone.

Should you wish to see this for yourself, go here for a web-based Drake's Equation calculator.


No word on "Shepherds" or "Public Assitance". But I've been working a little on another couple of stories, so perservere, perservere...